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AAR: “Demand for rail service should continue to grow”

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Written by: William C. Vantuono, Editor-in-Chief

In reporting weekly U.S. rail traffic as well as volumes for August 2015 and the first eight months of 2015, the Association of American Railroads said that traffic is beginning to show some signs of growth.

“August had essentially the same rail traffic pattern as the previous few months: a healthy increase in intermodal, a big decline in coal, continued weakness in a variety of energy-related commodities, and strength in some other carload segments,” said AAR Senior Vice President Policy and Economics John T. Gray. “Railroads are a derived-demand industry, meaning that demand for rail service is a function of demand downstream for the products railroads haul. We’re optimistic that the economy will continue to grow. Demand for rail service should continue to grow with it.”

Carload traffic in August totaled 1,155,957 carloads, down 4.6% or 56,104 carloads from August 2014. U.S. railroads also originated 1,114,370 containers and trailers in August 2015, up 3.6% or 38,617 units from the same month last year. For August 2015, combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations were 2,270,327, down 0.8% or 17,487 carloads and intermodal units from August 2014.

In August 2015, six of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with August 2014. This included: miscellaneous, up 28% or 5,870 carloads; motor vehicles and parts, up 5.1% or 3,460 carloads; and grain mill products, up 6.5% or 2,322 carloads. Commodities that saw declines in August 2015 from August 2014 included: coal, down 7.3% or 33,624 carloads; petroleum and petroleum products, down 13.9% or 9,078 carloads; and metallic ores, down 24.7% or 7,946 carloads.

Excluding coal, carloads were down 3% or 22,480 carloads in August 2015 from August 2014.

Total U.S. carload traffic for the first eight months of 2015 was 9,462,936 carloads, down 4.3% or 423,230 carloads, while intermodal containers and trailers were 9,051,287 units, up 2.6% or 233,597 containers and trailers when compared to the same period in 2014. For the first eight months of 2015, total rail traffic volume in the United States was 18,514,223 carloads and intermodal units, down 1% or 189,633 carloads and intermodal units from the same point last year.

Total U.S. weekly rail traffic for the week ending August 29, 2015 was 575,323 carloads and intermodal units, down 0.8% compared with the same week last year. For the week there were 290,792 carloads, down 5% compared with the same week in 2014, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 284,531 containers and trailers, up 4% compared to 2014. This represents the highest number for intermodal volume ever.

Three of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2014. They included: motor vehicles and parts, up 11.9% to 18,308; miscellaneous carloads, up 10.1% to 10,711 carloads; and farm products, up 0.2% to 16,127. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2014 included: metallic ores and metals, down 22.7% to 23,370 carloads; petroleum and petroleum products, down 15.3% to 13,896 carloads; and grain, down 5.9% to 18,259 carloads.

North American rail volume for the week ending Aug. 29, 2015 on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 383,184 carloads, down 5.9% compared with the same week last year, and 360,107 intermodal units, up 2.9% compared with last year. Total combined weekly rail traffic in North America, was 743,291 carloads and intermodal units, down 1.8%. North American rail volume for the first 34 weeks of 2015 was 24,134,296 carloads and intermodal units, down 0.5% compared with 2014.

Canadian railroads reported 75,438 carloads for the week, down 11.4%, and 63,880 intermodal units, up 0.1% compared with the same week in 2014. For the first 34 weeks of 2015, Canadian railroads reported cumulative rail traffic volume of 4,697,500 carloads, containers and trailers, up 0.9%.

Mexican railroads reported 16,954 carloads for the week, up 7.6% compared with the same week last year, and 11,696 intermodal units, down 7.4%. Cumulative volume on Mexican railroads for the first 34 weeks of 2015 was 922,573 carloads and intermodal containers and trailers, up 2.2% from the same point last year.


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