The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS) released numbers on July 13 showing the Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 0.2%in May from April, rising for the second consecutive month.
Included in the increase: rail freight carloads with a .6% increase, and rail intermodal with a 2.7% increase.
They report the May 2016 index level (121.8) was 28.6% above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession.
The level of freight shipments in May measured by the Freight TSI (121.8) was 1.5% below the all-time high level of 123.7 in December 2014. BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000.
The April index was revised to 121.5 from 121.1 and the March index was revised to 119.7 from 119.5 in last month’s release.
The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.
BTS' Analysis: The April to May Freight TSI increase of 0.2% was due to growth in all freight modes except trucking and air freight, which declined. The increase took place as the Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index declined by 0.4% in May, after rising by 0.6% in April. However, personal income, measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, increased by 0.2%, led by personal consumption which increased by 0.4%, while imports of goods increased by 1.9%. Also, employment grew, and the ISM Manufacturing Index, already above 50, increased slightly, indicating accelerating manufacturing growth.
BTS'trend view: The 0.2% Freight TSI rise in May from April was the second monthly increase in a succession. The combined increase of 1.8% over the two months from March to May was the largest two-month increase since September to November 2014. The two months of successive increase followed two months of successive decline, leaving the May level 1.6% below the December 2014 peak of 123.7. The index remains high compared to earlier years, rising 28.6% since the low of 94.7 in April 2009.
Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in May 2016 (121.8) were 28.6 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.7). The May 2016 level was 1.5 percent below the historic peak reached in December 2014 (123.7).
Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 0.3 percent in May compared to the end of 2015.